$ 15 billion

There were first assess the impact of drought and forest fires in July - August 2010 on the Russian economy. Analysts at HSBC and ' Uralsib ' assess the possible reduction in the rate of growth of Russian economy due to these events in the 1% of GDP. When the forecast nominal GDP of Russia in 2010, 44.8 trillion rubles. we are talking about sums of around 450 billion rubles. , Or about $ 15 billion.

Official attempts to estimate the losses associated with heat wave and fires in Russia, there will be no earlier than the end of 2010. In the part that directly relates to the production of goods and services, the first assessment of damage related to the July, you will see after the onset of the industrial production data of Rosstat in July 2010, which will be published next week. ' The main negative effect of drought and fires will occur in July-August ', - said Alexander Morozov from HSBC. With high probability, in July and August industrial production will fall (in June, seasonally adjusted decline of 0.3 %) in the third quarter of 2010, can we talk about officially recognized by the stagnation.

To date, we can say only a reduction in the official forecast cereal harvest in 2010 to 60-65 million tonnes. Temporary ban on grain exports, the economy until the end of the year will lose about $ 3 billion of income and food will get a surge of inflation, including a rise in price of food imports, its share is growing (see. ' B', dated 9 August). Economists have calculated the ING Russia: with a yield of wheat in 41 million tons and a total ban on its export from the Russian Federation average price of a tonne of wheat in the domestic market of about $ 185 per tonne. In this scenario, consumer price inflation in Russia by the end of 2010 may rise to 9.5%. Dmitry Polevoy from ING Russia said: if this prediction come true, recovery in domestic demand and economic growth at risk.

Alexander Morozov from HSBC states: '50 ​​% of value added in agriculture is created in the third quarter '. According to his estimates, due to problems in the industry and reduce the level of economic activity of Russia 's economy ' could lose about 4% of value added ' for the quarter and 1% GDP growth in 2010. ' The share of agriculture in the GDP - about 4%. Reduction of the industry means a reduction by one-third of GDP by 1% ', - I agree with Vladimir Tikhomirov from' Uralsib '. Most economists still consider the impact of environmental disaster on the economy of more modest. UBS ' after analyzing the possible effects of the most extreme in the last 30 years in the heat of the Russian Federation ' was published yesterday in the forecast for the Russian Federation has reduced the estimate of GDP growth in 2010 to 0.5 %. The inflation forecast in the 2010 UBS increased from 5.5% to 6% in 2011 - up 6.5%. In ' Uralsib ' yet forecast is not reconsidered, but Mr. Tikhomirov ' does not exclude ' 9 % inflation, ' and more ' in 2010. His estimate of GDP growth remains within 5-5.5 %, but ' in the light of recent events the growth may be lower '.

The respondents ' b', economists recognize that the loss of the Russian Federation in economic growth do not characterize all losses. 'In order to adequately assess the costs associated with the heat and fire, serious research ', - says Alexander Morozov. The exact monetary value and are costs incurred by the population due to the deterioration of environmental quality - is at least reflected in the increasing level of mortality and morbidity. Allocating money for the rehabilitation of housing, the government is unlikely to be serious ' investment ' in improving air and water quality, forest restoration, from the point of view of traditional economics has no market value. According to the opinion poll was conducted July 24-25, more than half of Russians think the environmental situation in the place of residence ' unfavorable ' or ' catastrophic '. The fact that the environment is close to the ' catastrophic ' in 2010 claimed 14% of respondents in 2005 were 9 %. Estimates of losses associated with environmental degradation, in Russia, unlike the U.S., EU, Canada, is not made.

... At least it is stupid. What is happening to the environment - the result of shortsighted economic policies. Drain the swamp once the purpose of building, no one thought about the costs: it was believed that this delayed effect, and the load on future generations. But the effect was more short-term ' - says the head of the Institute for Sustainable Development of the Public Chamber of Russia Vladimir Zakharov. According to him, only short-term costs associated with drought and fires in Russia, ' may be greater than the cost to eliminate the recent oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico '.

Professor of Economics Faculty of Moscow State University Sergei Bobylev said that restoring marshes less than extinguish fires. ' A classic example was the New York City, where the preservation of regional wetlands to provide the city with pure water was three to four times cheaper than building a treatment plant. This allows you to save annually several billion dollars ... According to him, ' one of the most negative effects of fire ' in July and August can be a decision to transfer the burned areas of forest and wetlands for the construction of. Plans for irrigation of peat bogs in the Moscow region in early August announced Moscow Region Governor Boris Gromov, he estimated the cost at 22 billion rubles. within three years.

Alexey Shapovalov Dmitry Butrin.


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